sirgog: Analyzing POE Heist Drop Rates and Jackpot Items

Discover the drop rates and jackpot items in Path of Exile's Heist league in this comprehensive analysis by sirgog.

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Griot the NPC

Path of Exile’s Heist league underwent a significant overhaul a few leagues ago, introducing jackpot items like the Simplex Amulet and Focused Amulet. In a massive data collection effort, the community has reverse-engineered the loot tables, providing valuable insights into drop rates. The sample size of nearly 30,000 curios allowed for accurate estimations of common items, while rarer drops require even larger sample sizes. The findings reveal distinct tiers of rarity and provide players with a better understanding of the value of various items.

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Key Takeaways:

  • Simplex Amulet, Focused Amulet, and Helical Rings are the rarest jackpot items.
  • Replica uniques like Replica Cex Head Hunter and Dust Stor Congo’s Undying Rage are highly sought after.
  • Tiered categorization of drop rates allows players to gauge the rarity of items.
  • Tailoring Orbs, Tempering Orbs, and Divine Orbs are relatively common drops.

Exploring Drop Rates in Heist:

Path of Exile’s Heist league introduced several new jackpot items, significantly impacting the in-game economy. The community undertook a massive data collection effort, tracking nearly 30,000 curios to determine drop rates and rarity tiers. While the sample size allowed for accurate estimations of common items, rarer drops require much larger sample sizes to achieve accuracy.

Among the rarest items are the Simplex Amulet, Focused Amulet, and Helical Rings. These items provide significant power boosts and are highly sought after by players. However, due to the limited sample size of these items, it is unclear whether the reported numbers are outliers or representative of the actual drop rates.

Replica uniques, such as Replica Cex Head Hunter and Dust Stor Congo’s Undying Rage, form a solid tier one in terms of rarity. These items are found approximately once every 2,000 wings, making them highly valuable on the in-game market. Other tiered categories, ranging from tier two to tier five, provide players with a clear understanding of the rarity of various items.

Additionally, the data collection effort revealed the drop rates of common currency items. Tailoring Orbs, Tempering Orbs, and Divine Orbs are relatively common drops, with players encountering them approximately once every 25 wings. These drops provide a consistent source of income and can be used to enhance gear and trade with other players.

Testing Hypotheses and Unanswered Questions:

The data collection effort also aimed to test various hypotheses and address unanswered questions in the community. One important test was conducted to determine if there was hidden favoritism towards the fourth wing on a blueprint, resulting in better drop rates for certain items. However, the extensive tracking of replica uniques showed no bias towards specific wings, debunking this hypothesis.

One unanswered question that remains is whether the rarity quantity or the number of zone mods found in a heist has any impact on the items obtained from curios. While most players speculate that these factors do not affect drop rates, further investigation is needed to provide a definitive answer.

Overall, the comprehensive analysis of Heist’s drop rates and jackpot items provides players with valuable insights into the game’s economy and the value of various items. It allows players to make informed decisions when engaging in heists and trading with other players.